I have been looking at the internals of some of the polls to get a general idea of what McCain's problem is. I won't bore you with the numbers, but it surprisingly appears that women voters are not on board with McCain. McCain was doing very well with women voters after the convention, but that was a momentary spike which has faded. Other groups have not changed much, so Obama has surged ahead based on the female vote.
Male voters overall prefer McCain. This has never changed since before the convention.
Pure independents prefer McCain. This is not surprising. McCain is a center right candidate, while Obama is fall-off-the-map far left. Independents are one of McCain's main hopes.
McCains needs to do better with women voters, and to that end, he should unshackle Palin, whom his campaign has kept sequestered out of fear that she would trip up. Things are looking a bit bleak for his team, so he really has nothing to lose by sending her out and letting her kick up the dust and just accept the results, good or bad. She is his only hope to recapture the female vote and eek out a win.
5 comments:
A very astute analysis, I hope they don't listen to you. They may yet unleash her in the last two weeks if their upcoming smear campaign (Bill Ayers) doesn't work.
However, I don't accept that Obama is a fall-off-the-map far left candidate. That would be Kucinich. His stance on gay marriage is center left, his stance on withdrawal from Iraq is center left, his stance on Afghanistan is center, his threats to invade Pakistan airspace and attack any t-camp is center to center right to far right. It is pre-emptive warfare, not at all a far left position. I imagine that there are other examples. It is typical conservative tactics to to frame the entire left as one very, very steep slope to socialism/communism/godlessness.
The modern left is much more sophisticated than that.
I stand corrected about Obama's leftward position regarding foreign policy. His statements indicate that he is left of center-left, but still on the map, but I still believe him to be off the map in terms of domestic policy.
The left espouses many tenets of socialism, so the conservative fear of such is valid.
A point about socialism and communism: These political systems have never been kind to religion, so the religious have reason to fear.
Lastly, how do you know that their upcoming campaign will be one of smear, if you haven't seen it yet? I'm sure you base your assumption on past perceived behavior, but it cannot be a smear if it is the truth. The swiftboat ads 2004 were never proven wrong, but the howls from the Kerry campaign were unceasing because it hurt (as truth tends to do).
I am referring to Sarah Palin's comments over the weekend. As per my post on Bill Ayers, the right intends to exaggerate and spin Obama's relationship to Ayers and to smear him with it. It has already begun. It is what Sarah Palin has been sent out to do.
And it could well backfire badly.
Obama's spokesman is now saying the Obama was unaware of Ayers past. So now the tune has changed from 'it was a loose casual relationship' to 'Obama didn't know of Ayers past.' Well, why didn't he say that before?
For one, that is hard to believe, and for two, politicians use such an excuse only when an accusation/attack is hurting. Therefore, such a statement will only encourage more attacks.
Lastly, for three, backfire or not - the McPalin team has no other recourse. With only a month left, they must begin shooting the remainder of their ammo now. If Obama weathers it, he is a shoo in.
I agree that he must have known about Bill Ayers past as some point during this acquaintance with him. However, maybe not the first couple of times they were in the room together.. I hadn't heard of him before and I am sure that there are a lot of Chicagoans do didn't know who he is/was before all this.
At one point did he learn of Ayer's past according to Obama's spokesman and/or Obama detractors? That would be a good thing to know.
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