Not the movie. The presidential election.
The Democrats: While I can't imagine Pres. Obama not running again. I keep wondering if Hillary Clinton cannot resist one more try. Although she denies it, I think she still harbors ambitions, and I think she disagrees with Obama on many foreign policy initiatives. That is why she is often off to Africa or the Far East when much of the foreign policy action is centered on Israel and Iran. Prediction: Obama is the nominee. Bold Prediction: Obama will dump Biden and choose someone who appears more serious.
The Republicans: If Republican voters follow custom, Governor Romney will be the nominee. In recent history, there has been a stark difference in how the Democrats and Republicans choose their nominees. The Democrats often choose underdogs and dark horses: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. Republicans, on the other hand, almost systematically choose the next guy in line, i.e., whoever finished second last time, or whoever appears to have earned the nomination by long-term service to the party. Hence, we got Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, and John McCain. It's a remarkable trend.
Prediction: Romney is the nominee. Bold Prediction: He will choose Pawlenty as his running-mate. Easy prediction: Sarah Palin will be Head Cheerleader (Is it sexist when it's the truth?) and as such will be a keynote speaker at the Republican Convention.
7 comments:
I hope your prediction about Romney is true. Although I still worry that his Mormonism may still play a roll in not getting nominated. I am not sure enough people can look pass that. As for Sarah....I wish she would just leave the lime light. I don't think she is helping the GOP in any way. I don't know why the media are so enthralled with her. Is it because she really does have some pull with the public? I don't dislike her, but she just isn't Presidential material in my eyes. When will we start hearing about party nominees being chosen? in 2011?
Go on...don't leave us hanging! So who goes on to win the presidency?
Don't discount the possibility of Dirk Kempthorne from Idaho. He was the Mayor of Boise, The Governor of Idaho, a U.S. Senetor, and Secretary of Interior... I think he'll be the Vice Presidential Candidate with Romeny at the helm. Kempthorne is a good man.
Never heard of Kempthorn.
Baring some natural or man-made disaster and/or voting fraud that would affect the election, Obama will be a one-term president in a fair election.
I see Romney was ahead in a poll recently for the republican nomination.
Wow. Let's hold on to this post. It will be fun to look back in a few years just to see what how things turn out.
I agree that the Republican Party must jettison Palin.
She is a liability.
Too much time to go before we know if Obama is as vulnerable as you say. A year in politics is a life time as this past year and a few months have shown.
Romney may indeed win, but he is going to have some embarrassing moments. Flip flop history on abortion and gay rights. Health care program in Ma. that he helped author and promote that is nearly identical to what Obama promoted including required purchase of insurance. A religion that is not favored by many.
Mormonism itself will hit the spotlight complete with its history which can be a very difficult history to defend.
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